Research & Insights
Issue 14  ·  March 2026
Forthcoming Annual Report

2026 Nigeria Capital
Markets Outlook

A systematic review of the Nigerian macroeconomic environment and its implications for fixed income, FX, and real returns. Covers CBN policy trajectory, NBS CPI dynamics, structural naira pressures, and the real return outlook for T-bill holders.

Read the Outlook
Live
VNG-CRR
Venoble Nigeria Cash Real Return Index
1,042.7
As of January 2026
Monthly +0.38%
YTD +4.27%
Ann. Nominal +9.48%
Ann. Real −5.48%
Full Index & Methodology
Jan 31 2026
Publications
2026 Nigeria Capital Markets Outlook
A systematic review of the Nigerian macroeconomic environment and its implications for fixed income, FX, and real returns. Covers CBN policy trajectory, NBS CPI dynamics, structural naira pressures, and the real return outlook.
Annual Report
Jan 28 2026
Index Update
VNG-CRR Monthly Update — January 2026
The index returned +0.38% in January as the annualised stop rate of 18.4% partially offset CPI inflation of 24.5%. Real purchasing power continues to erode.
Data + Article
Jan 20 2026
Macro
NBS CPI Report Analysis: Headline at 24.48%, Core Sticky at 22.1%
January 2026 CPI data from NBS. Food inflation eased marginally to 26.1% while core remains elevated. Implications for real rates and CBN policy path.
Analysis
Jan 15 2026
Fixed Income
CBN Stop Rate Watch: Auction Dynamics and Real Return Implications
Review of recent primary market auction stop rates. 91-day settled at 18.65%, 182-day at 18.20%. We assess whether current rates compensate for inflation risk.
Commentary
Dec 31 2025
Index Update
VNG-CRR Full Year 2025: +9.48% Nominal, −5.48% Real Annualised
Full-year performance review. The index delivered positive nominal returns but persistent inflation continued to erode real purchasing power for naira cash holders.
Annual Review
Dec 10 2025
FX
Naira Trajectory: Structural Pressures and NAFEM Stability
Analysis of NGN/USD dynamics following CBN's liberalisation. We model three scenarios for the naira through H1 2026 and their implications for real return investors.
Article
Nov 18 2025
Publications
VNG-CRR Methodology: Calculation Rules, Fisher Equation, and Validation
Complete methodology documentation. Covers the Fisher equation formulation, EAY calculation (Actual/365), chain-linking procedure, and the full 204-month back-test.
PDF · 24pp
Oct 5 2025
Macro
Real Returns in High-Inflation Emerging Markets: A Framework
How should investors think about cash, short-duration fixed income, and inflation risk in markets with structurally elevated CPI? We apply our VNG-CRR framework to the broader EM context.
Working Paper
Sep 12 2025
Equities
NGSE All-Share: Valuation Reset and Earnings Outlook Q4 2025
The ASI is up 34% year-to-date in naira terms. We assess whether this reflects genuine value creation or a monetary inflation proxy.
Article
Market Snapshot
March 2026
NGN/USD 1,590.00
MPR 27.50%
FGN 91d Stop 17.65%
CPI (Jan 2026) 24.48%
NGSE ASI 104,562
Brent Crude $74.82
Research Briefing
Monthly analysis.
No noise.

Institutional-grade market intelligence delivered to subscribers each month.

Subscribe
For institutional and professional investors only.