Annual Report

2026 Nigeria Capital
Markets Outlook

A systematic review of the Nigerian macroeconomic environment and its implications for fixed income, FX, and real returns. Covers CBN policy trajectory, NBS CPI dynamics, structural naira pressures, and the real return outlook for T-bill holders.

Venoble Research · January 2026
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What's Inside

01
Macroeconomic Overview GDP growth trajectory, fiscal dynamics, and the structural reform agenda
02
Inflation & Monetary Policy NBS CPI dynamics, CBN policy rate outlook, and disinflation path
03
Fixed Income & Real Returns T-bill yields, bond curve analysis, and VNG-CRR real return outlook
04
Foreign Exchange Structural naira pressures, reserves trajectory, and FX regime outlook
05
Equities & Asset Allocation NGX performance, sector views, and cross-asset allocation framework

Key Themes

Disinflation in progress Eight consecutive months of declining headline CPI, but the pace is slowing
Fiscal revenue structural shift Non-oil revenue now exceeds oil for the first time in decades
Real returns still negative VNG-CRR annualised real return of -5.48% — cash holders continue to lose purchasing power
NGX momentum Equities remain the strongest asset class with 30-40% upside potential

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